Probabilistic Assessment of Net Transfer Capacity Considering Forecast Uncertainties

In transmission system planning, researchers propose methods to assess the effect of uncertainties of power system operating condition due to forecasting errors of intermittent generation and loads. In particular probabilistic power flow methods are used to calculate the probability distributions of the voltages and the branch currents, starting from the distributions of power injections/absorptions. These uncertainties play a key role in the operational planning of power systems, as certain configurations of load and intermittent generation can cause security problems. This paper aims to propose a probabilistic methodology to assess Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) among network areas, which quantifies forecast error uncertainties by applying the Point Estimate Method (PEM) combined with Third Order Polynomial Normal (TPN) Transformation. This approach is compared with a conventional NTC assessment technique and has been tested on an IEEE test system.