A seismic source model with temporal dependence of large earthquake occurrence for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Japan

In order to evaluate instantaneous seismic hazard in Japan, we developed a seismic source model with temporal dependence of large earthquake occurrence. Fault sources generating large characteristic earthquakes repeatedly were individually identified from historical earthquake and active fault data. Recurrence intervals for large characteristic earthquakes are modeled by a lognormal distribution. Background seismic sources generating small and moderate earthquakes were continuously defined along the upper planes of four plates in and near Japan: the Pacific plate, the Philippine Sea plate, the Eurasia plate, and the Okhotsk plate. The effects of the temporal dependence of seismicity were demonstrated.