POLICY BRIEF: IMBALANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OVER THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

被引：0
|
作者：
Moeller, Joergen Oerstroem [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] ISEAS Yusof Ishak Inst, 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore 119614, Singapore
[2] Singapore Management Univ, 81 Victoria St, Singapore 188065, Singapore
[3] Univ Copenhagen, Copenhagen Business Sch, Howitzvej 60, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
来源：
SINGAPORE ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2016年 / 61卷 / 05期
关键词：
Global imbalances; China savings surplus; global investment pattern; demography; productivity; consumption;
D O I：
10.1142/S0217590816710028
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Global debt will keep growth subdued over the next decade. Falling work force will move labor intensive manufacturing out of China and into South Asia. Investment, not consumption, will be the main driver of growth, which primarily will take place in Asia and probably also Africa. New institutional frameworks such as AIIB emerge, but they will operate inside the existing global order. Falling albeit still tangible Chinese saving combined with fading interest for US treasury bonds will pose an awkward dilemma for US monetary policy. Under such circumstances current savings-investment balances will continue to rule the global economy.
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页数：9
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