Open Science and the Hype Cycle

The introduction of a new technology or innovation is often accompanied by "ups and downs" in its fortunes. Gartner Inc. defined a so-called hype cycle to describe a general pattern that many innovations experience: technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, and plateau of productivity. This article will compare the ongoing introduction of Open Science (OS) with the hype cycle model and speculate on the relevance of that model to OS. Lest the title of this article mislead the reader, be assured that the author believes that OS should happen and that it will happen. However, I also believe that the path to OS will be longer than many of us had hoped. I will give a brief history of the today's "semi-open" science, define what I mean by OS, define the hype cycle and where OS is now on that cycle, and finally speculate what it will take to traverse the cycle and rise to its plateau of productivity (as described by Gartner).