Prediction of gait velocity in ambulatory stroke patients during rehabilitation

Objective: To quantify prediction of gait velocity in ambulatory stroke patients during rehabilitation. Design: Single group (n = 42) at the beginning of rehabilitation (Test 1) and 8 weeks later (Test 2). Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation. Patients: Unilateral first stroke; informed consent; able to walk 10 meters. Measures: Independent variables: Gait velocity at Test 1, age, time from stroke to Test I, side of lesion, neglect. Dependent variables: Gait velocity at Test 2, gait velocity change. Results: The correlation between initial gait velocity and gait velocity outcome at Test 2 was of moderate strength (r(2) =.62, p<.05). However, even at its lowest, the standard error of prediction for an individual patient was 9.4m/min, with 95% confidence intervals extending over a range of 36.8m/min. Age was a weak predictor of gait velocity at Test 2 (r(2) = -.10, p <.05). Gait velocity change was poorly predicted. The only significant correlations were initial gait velocity (r(2) =.10, p <.05) and age (r(2) =.10,p <.05). Conclusion: While the prediction of gait velocity at Test 2 was of moderate strength on a group basis, the error surrounding predicted values of gait velocity for a single patient was relatively high, indicating that this simple approach was imprecise on an individual basis. The prediction of gait velocity change was poor. A wide range of change scores was possible for patients, irrespective of their gait velocity score on admission to rehabilitation. (C) 1999 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation.