Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen

被引:46
|
作者
Kajita, Emily
Okano, Justin T.
Bodine, Erin N.
Layne, Scott P.
Blower, Sally
机构
[1] Univ Calif Los Angeles, David Geffen Sch Med, Semel Inst Neurosci & Human Behav, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA
[2] Univ Calif Los Angeles, David Geffen Sch Med, UCLA AIDS Inst, Dept Psychiat, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA
[3] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1038/nrmicro1660
中图分类号
Q93 [微生物学];
学科分类号
071005 ; 100705 ;
摘要
To illustrate the usefulness of mathematical models to the microbiology and medical communities, we explain how to construct and apply a simple transmission model of an emerging pathogen. We chose to model, as a case study, a large (> 8,000 reported cases) on-going outbreak of community-acquired meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) in the Los Angeles County Jail. A major risk factor for CA-MRSA infection is incarceration. Here, we show how to design a within-jail transmission model of CA-MRSA, parameterize the model and reconstruct the outbreak. The model is then used to assess the severity of the outbreak, predict the epidemiological consequences of a catastrophic outbreak and design effective interventions for outbreak control.
引用
收藏
页码:700 / 709
页数:10
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