Energy consumption forecast for redevelopment concepts for buildings and districts

Elaboration of a forecast model to predict realistic thermal energy savings for renovations on building and district levels, in consideration of prebound and rebound effects. Within the scope of redevelopment concepts, consumption forecasts are being compiled to quantify and evaluate energy saving potentials. It should be considered that the ratio of the calculated energy demand and the actual energy consumption before and after the renovation is not linear. The calculated heat demand typically exceeds the measured heat consumption before a renovation, while it is usually lower after the renovation. These phenomena are known as "prebound effect" and "rebound effect". They can cause an overestimation of potential energy savings and can have a negative impact on the overall economic efficiency of renovation measures. Therefore, they should be included in the development of renovation strategies. For this purpose, a forecast model will be presented which allows for realistic heat consumption forecasts based on an adaptable, empirical data basis. It is applicable to residential as well as non-residential buildings. These forecasts can be extrapolated from the building level to large building stocks and are thereby also applicable to the holistic renovation strategies on district level. The model will be demonstrated by the example of the university campus "Campus Lichtwiese" of TU Darmstadt, outlining the significance and impact of prebound and rebound effects.