Risk analysis of floodwater resources utilization along water diversion project: a case study of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

Based on fuzzy mathematics, a risk assessment model of floodwater resources utilization in a water diversion project was established based on the fuzzy network analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP). First, the weight of each factor was determined through AHP, and then the fuzzy evaluation method (FEM) was used for analysis and comparison. Finally, the optimal decision scheme was determined. The model was applied to the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) for floodwater resources utilization risk assessment. The results show that the model can utilize the risk factors of floodwater resources for identification and sorting, and then make a risk evaluation. The risk of floodwater resources utilization in a normal flow year is the lowest and the benefit is remarkable, providing a reasonable control scheme, and reducing unnecessary losses for the risk of floodwater resources utilization.