A global quantification of compound precipitation and wind extremes

被引:148
|
作者
Martius, Olivia [1 ]
Pfahl, Stephan [2 ]
Chevalier, Clement [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Mobiliar Lab Nat Risks, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
[2] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
[3] Univ Neuchatel, Inst Stat, Neuchatel, Switzerland
关键词
extreme weather; cyclones; compound extremes; extreme precipitation; extreme wind; STORMS; IMPACTS;
D O I
10.1002/2016GL070017
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The concomitant occurrence of extreme precipitation and winds can have severe impacts. Here this concomitant occurrence is quantified globally using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. A logistic regression model is used to determine significant changes in the odds of precipitation extremes given a wind extreme that occurs on the same day, the day before, or the day after. High percentages of cooccurring wind and precipitation extremes are found in coastal regions and in areas with frequent tropical cyclones, with maxima of more than 50% of concomitant events. Strong regional-scale variations in this percentage are related to the interaction of weather systems with topography resulting in Fohn winds, gap winds, and orographic drying and the structure and tracks of extratropical and tropical cyclones. The percentage of concomitant events increases substantially if spatial shifts by one grid point are taken into account. Such spatially shifted but cooccurring events are important in insurance applications.
引用
收藏
页码:7709 / 7717
页数:9
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