The euro area's pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation

被引：18

作者：

Cardani, Roberta ^{[1
]}

Croitorov, Olga ^{[2
]}

Giovannini, Massimo ^{[1
,3
]}

Pfeiffer, Philipp ^{[2
]}

Ratto, Marco ^{[1
]}

Vogel, Lukas ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy

[2] European Commiss, Directorate Gen Econ & Financial Affairs, Rue Loi 170, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium

[3] Cent Bank Malta, Castille Pl, Valletta VLT 1060, Malta

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL | 2022年 / 143卷

关键词：

COVID-19; Estimated DSGE model; Euro area; Recession; Forced savings; DEMAND; PRICES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104512

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper augments the European Commission's open-economy DSGE model (GM) with COVID-specific shocks ('forced savings', labour hoarding) and financially-constrained investors to account for the extreme volatility of private domestic demand and hours worked during COVID-19, and it estimates the model on euro area data for the period 1998q4-2021q4. It takes a pragmatic approach of adapting the workhorse model of a policy institution to COVID-19 data. 'Forced savings' are central to explain quarterly real GDP growth during the pandemic, complemented by contributions from foreign demand and trade, and the negative impact of persistently higher savings after the first wave. We provide extensive model validation, including a comparison to off-model evidence for COVID-related restrictions, and a comparison of different model specifications. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页数：33

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