Growth, Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis

Existing evidence suggests that protectionist activity since the financial crisis has been muted, raising the question whether the historically well-documented relationship between growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism has broken down. We use a novel and comprehensive dataset that stretches beyond the traditionally considered tariff and trade defense measures to study the responsiveness of trade policies to business cycles and price competitiveness in the time period since the financial crisis. We find that the specter of protectionism has not been banished. Countries continue to pursue more trade-restrictive policies when they experience recessions and/or when their competitiveness deteriorates. Our results suggest that the global economy continues to be exposed to the risk of a creeping return of trade protectionism.