Post-COVID-19 scenarios: A method for moments of crisis

被引:1
|
作者
Marcial, Elaine Coutinho [1 ]
Schneider, Eduardo Rodrigues [2 ,3 ]
Pio, Marcello Jose [4 ,5 ]
Leal, Rodrigo Mendes [6 ,7 ]
Fronzaglia, Thomaz [8 ,9 ]
Gimene, Marcio [1 ,10 ]
机构
[1] Univ Catolica Brasilia, Foresight Res Grp Studies NEP UCB, Campus Taguatinga,QS 07-Lote 01-EPCT, BR-71966700 Brasilia, DF, Brazil
[2] UCB, NEP, Rua Para,76,Sala 12c,Consolacao, BR-01243020 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
[3] INSPRO, Rua Para,76,Sala 12c,Consolacao, BR-01243020 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
[4] Univ Catolica Brasilia, NEP, SBN Quadra 01 Bloco C,5 Andar, BR-70040903 Brasilia, DF, Brazil
[5] CNI, SBN Quadra 01 Bloco C,5 Andar, BR-70040903 Brasilia, DF, Brazil
[6] Univ Castelo Branco, NEP, Av Republ Chile,100 Ctr, BR-20031917 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
[7] BNDES, Av Republ Chile,100 Ctr, BR-20031917 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
[8] Univ Catolica Brasilia, NEP, Parque Estacao Biol PQEB S N, Secretaria Inteligencia & Relacoes Estrateg SIRE, BR-70770901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil
[9] Embrapa, Secretaria Inteligencia & Relacoes Estrateg SIRE, Parque Estacao Biol PQEB S N, BR-70770901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil
[10] Brazilian Minist Econ, Brasilia, Brazil
关键词
Mini-scenarios method; COVID-19; Crisis; Strategies; Brazil;
D O I
10.1016/j.futures.2022.102996
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
At the beginning of 2020, feelings of fear and uncertainty spread throughout the world after the novel coronavirus rapid propagation. The world was not ready to face such a situation. Countries implemented emergency measures to contain it, which included social distancing and shutting down the economy. Social and economic impacts were unpredictable. This manuscript aims to present the application of a remote scenario planning method that identifies threats, opportu-nities, and subsidies to a strategic evaluation in a short term. The main results identified 15 key trends, four critical uncertainties, four scenarios, ten opportunities, and 13 threats. They were debated and presented to some Brazilian organizations' decision-makers to help develop strate-gies to curb the aftermath of COVID-19. Our findings show that it is possible to use this agile method to build consistent and coherent scenarios that support the decision-making process. Part of the experts said that participating in the process was essential to comprehend it better. The process also contributed to their learning process and their organization on anticipatory strategy thinking concerning possible future. They agree that the scenarios were relevant, defiant, and plausible and incorporated meaningful events and real challenges to their organizations' strategy formulation or decision-making.
引用
收藏
页数:11
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