Study on Regional Reduction Scenarios under the Constraint of Carbon Intensity Target

At the Copenhagen World Climate Conference in 2009, China proposed, by 2020 CO2 emissions unit GDP decreased by 40-45% compared to 2005. This paper first computed the carbon emissions and intensity of unit GDP in each 30 provinces of China during the period of 2005-2012 using the approach recommended by IPCC, the results demonstrated that there is a low likelihood of achieving its commitment of emission reduction targets till 2020. Then, the study framed five carbon reduction scenarios with different criterion to allocate the total emission quota reasonably among provinces. Finally, the scenarios with the criterion of carbon emission accumulation and payment capacity offer the superiority to achieve the target.