Impact of Land Management Scale on the Carbon Emissions of the Planting Industry in China

A change in agricultural land management scale leads to the recombination and adjustment of production factors, which have an important impact on agricultural carbon emissions. There are few studies on the connection between the scale of land management and agricultural carbon emissions. In this study, we empirically examined the relationship between planting scale and agricultural carbon emissions using the threshold model, which allows the data to endogenously generate several regimes identified by the thresholds. The results showed that from 2003 to 2018, carbon emissions from planting first increased and then decreased, reaching their highest in 2015. Across the whole country in the main rice- and wheat-producing regions, the scale of planting land has a threshold effect on agricultural carbon emissions, showing an inverted "U" shape. Carbon sinks and natural disasters significantly affected planting carbon emissions in the above three regions. The amount of fiscal support for agriculture significantly affects planting carbon emissions in the national and main wheat-producing regions, while peasants' per capita income significantly affects planting carbon emissions in the main rice- and wheat-producing regions. This study provides policy makers with new ideas, in that continuously expanding the scale of agricultural land management is conducive to reducing agricultural carbon emissions.