A Bayesian Modelling of Wildfires in Portugal

被引：5

作者：

Silva, Giovani L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Soares, Paulo ^{[1
,2
]}

Marques, Susete ^{[5
,6
]}

Ines Dias, M. ^{[3
,4
]}

Manuela Oliveira, M. ^{[3
,4
]}

Borges, Jose G. ^{[5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, CEAUL, Ave Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Dept Math, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal

[3] Univ Evora, CIMA, Evora, Portugal

[4] Univ Evora, Dept Math, Evora, Portugal

[5] Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Agron, FRC, Lisbon, Portugal

[6] Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Agron, Dept Nat Resources Environm & Terr, Lisbon, Portugal

来源：

DYNAMICS, GAMES AND SCIENCE | 2015年 / 1卷

关键词：

FOREST-FIRES; BETA REGRESSION; IGNITION;

D O I：

10.1007/978-3-319-16118-1_38

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

In the last decade wildfires became a serious problem in Portugal due to socieconomic and climate change trends. In order to analyse wildfire data, we employ beta regression for modelling the proportion of burned wild area, under a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to find out fire risk factors that influence the proportion of area burned and what may make a wild area susceptible or resistant to fire. Then, we analyse wildfire data in Portugal during 1990-1994 through Bayesian normal and beta regression models that use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimating quantities of interest.

引用

页码：723 / 733

页数：11

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