Limits of actuarial risk assessment instruments for the search of truth in predictivity

Actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAI) have contributed to a methodological improvement for the evaluation inside the forensic system. One main effect was the reduction of false positive predictions. The ARAI present some advantages but also some important limits: (a) their assessment, leading to an overall score is not as easy as expected and requires appropriate training; (b) they include criteria identified from group statistics, the interpretation does not automatically apply to the evaluated individuals; (c) the specific personal characteristics not covered as individual behavior beyond the statistical probability; (d) the appreciation of the context of occurrence of the violent act is not sufficiently considered. These limits are still partially challenged in the latest generation of evaluative instruments called "structured clinical" that include both variables "static" linked to the past as well as variables "dynamic" related to the present and future. The paper discusses the limitations of the ARAI and formulates recommendations. (C) 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.