Nonparametric vector autoregression

We consider a vector conditional heteroscedastic autoregressive nonlinear (CHARN) model in which both the conditional mean and the conditional variance (volatility) matrix are unknown functions of the past. Nonparametric estimators of these functions are constructed based on local polynomial fitting. We examine the rates of convergence of these estimators and give a result on their asymptotic normality. These results are applied to estimation of volatility matrices in foreign exchange markets. Estimation of the conditional covariance surface for the Deutsche Mark/US Dollar (DEM/USD) and Deutsche Mark/British Pound !DEM/GBP) daily returns show negative correlation when the two series have opposite lagged values and positive correlation elsewhere. The relation of our findings to the capital asset pricing model is discussed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.