Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico

Arterial hypertension is a major global health problem. It is the main risk factor for preventable death and the leading cause of premature death in the world. This study aims to describe the changes in hypertension-related mortality in Mexico between 1998 and 2018. Using death certificates and national population public data sets, a total of 335,863 deaths due to hypertension were found in Mexico, disaggregated by sex and age, during the time period covered in this study. An age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to show trends in hypertension mortality rates. Mortality due to hypertension in Mexico affects more women than men. In the most recent cohorts, the risk of dying from hypertension is two times higher in men compared to women. Hypertensive kidney disease is found to be the main underlying cause, with an average increase throughout the period studied. Our results indicate that mortality rates due to hypertension continue to grow and point to an alarming trend of mortality shifting towards younger ages, with sex-based disparities in absolute numbers and in changing trends.