Analysis and Evaluation of Production Risk for the Main Grain-producing Areas of China

The purpose of this paper is to assess the production risk for the main grain-producing areas of China, including thirteen provinces. A parametric approach is used to model grain-yield distribution for samples and the goodness-of-fit test is used to choose the best appropriate yield distribution. Parameters of the selected yield distribution are estimated through the maximum likelihood estimation approach. The Burr distribution is found to be the most appropriate parametric distribution to model grain-production risks for the six provinces of the main grain-producing areas in China. Findings also show that log-logistic distribution, normal distribution, logistic distribution and Johnson SB distribution are the best appropriate model for the different remaining provinces. The grain-production loss ratios of the provinces of the main grain-producing areas are between 5 and 15 percent, which is considered medium range in most regions. The highest production risks are located in the Northeast regions of China (Jilin and Liaoning) while the lowest is located in the Central regions of China (Hunan and Jiangxi province).