Analysis of Agricultural CO2 Emissions in Henan Province, China, Based on EKC and Decoupling

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is highly concerning. Both the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and decoupling analysis indicate a dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, and each method has its own emphasis. The objective of this paper is to investigate the nexus between grain production and agricultural carbon emissions for the main grain-producing areas in China. Taking Henan Province, the second largest agricultural province, as an example, this paper examines the relationship between grain production and agricultural CO2 emissions during 2000-2019, using the EKC hypothesis and decoupling analysis. The results are as follows: (1) The estimation model of CO2 EKC shows the climbing stage of an inverted U-shaped relationship, which suggests that agricultural economic growth occurred at the cost of an increase in agricultural CO2 emissions in Henan Province during the past 20 years. (2) The results of the decoupling analysis show that incidences of weak decoupling and expansive coupling states took up most of the study period, accompanied by an occasionally strong decoupling state; decoupling and coupling states alternated irregularly, and no clear development trends were observed. (3) Considering the shape of the CO2 EKC and the decoupling state, environmental policies encouraged decoupling, but suffered from time lags and poor continuity; long-term incentives, such as an ecological compensation policy, could perhaps drive carbon emission reduction. On this basis, Chinese agricultural policy should combine environmentally targeted interventions with measures supporting production and farmers' incomes, and environmental policy should also adapt to economic growth. Only when both supplement each other can sustainable agricultural goals be achieved.