STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER FORECAST IN RAJASTHAN

Wind energy has been fastest growing renewable energy sector in Rajasthan. At present, wind power developers in Rajasthan have been facing losses for the last two months because the state Distribution Companies (DISCOMs) have been arbitrarily curtailing their intake of wind power, at two or three times a day. Rajasthan has nearly 4000 MW of installed wind capacity, the third highest in the country after Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Of this, around 700 MW was added in 2015-16. Energy is vital for country's economic growth and improving the life standard of its citizens. "Wind energy is a clean and eco-friendly energy source and increasingly accepted as major and complimentary for securing a sustainable and clean energy future in Rajasthan. This paper provides a detailed description of Rajasthan wind energy, current status and major achievements along with future of wind Energy in Rajasthan [Singh and Singh (2014)]. This paper is based on the secondary data taken from various sources and time series analysis is applied on the data. The response variable is taken as volume of generation of wind power in MW. The least square method to find out the year-wise trend of wind power generation is applied on the time series data. For verification of autocorrelation in time series Durbin-Watson (DW) test is applied [Armstrong (1978)]. The model so obtained is also statistically tested by using Theil's U-test. The model was found satisfactorily fit for forecasting.