Fault reactivation induced by tunneling activity in clay material: Hints from numerical modeling

Seismic events with magnitude 3 and above have been associated with the removal of rock mass in mining environment since long-time. On the contrary, little is known about the possible seismic events induced by tunneling, although it presents similarities with mining. One great example is the case of the 57 km long Gotthard Base Tunnel excavation, which has been associated more than hundred seismic events, with the largest one having magnitude of ML 2.4, damaging the tunnel infrastructures (e.g. gallery floor or portal area). Different underground structures will be built probably up to 1000 m below ground for the construction of future deep geological for the storage of nuclear waste. While seismic risk will probably not constitute a liability for the storage site construction, it is important to understand the potential for reactivation of seismogenic features located nearby the future location of emplacement tunnels. Here we present numerical simulations aimed at understanding the potential for fault reactivation during tunnel construction in clay material, a potential host rock for nuclear waste repository. We evaluate the evolution of the stress changes during the simulation of the excavation with FLAC3D numerical solver. A strain-softening friction model is used to simulate the occurrence of a sudden slip on a fault zone when critical conditions for reactivation are satisfied. This constitutes a worst-case scenario, given the low seismogenic potential of clay rocks. We also present a sensitivity analysis on several critical parameters including fault frictional properties, stress conditions, as well as different tunnel sizes at varying distance from a nearby failure plane, with the final purpose of evaluating safety of a potential nuclear repository site on the short- and long-term.