A machine-learning approach based on 409 treatments to predict optimal number of iodine-125 seeds in low-dose-rate prostate

Purpose: Low-dose-rate brachytherapy is a key treatment for low-risk or favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer. The number of radioactive seeds inserted during the procedure depends on prostate volume, and is not easy to predict without pre-planning. Consequently, a large number of unused seeds may be left after treatment. The objective of the present study was to predict the exact number of seeds for future patients using machine learning and a database of 409 treatments. Material and methods: Database consisted of 18 dosimetric and efficiency parameters for each of 409 cases. Nine predictive algorithms based on machine-learning were compared in this database, which was divided into training group (80%) and test group (20%). Ten-fold cross-validation was applied to obtain robust statistics. The best algorithm was then used to build an abacus able to predict number of implanted seeds from expected prostate volume only. As an evaluation, the abacus was also applied on an independent series of 38 consecutive patients. Results: The best coefficients of determination R2 were given by support vector regression, with values attaining 0.928, 0.948, and 0.968 for training set, test set, and whole set, respectively. In terms of predicted seeds in test group, mean square error, median absolute error, mean absolute error, and maximum error were 2.55, 0.92, 1.21, and 7.29, respectively. The use of obtained abacus in 38 additional patients resulted in saving of 493 seeds (393 vs. 886 remaining seeds). Conclusions: Machine-learning-based abacus proposed in this study aims at estimating the necessary number of seeds for future patients according to past experience. This new abacus, based on 409 treatments and successfully tested in 38 new patients, is a good alternative to non-specific recommendations.