Evolving US monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability

Based on a structural VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility for the post-WWII U.S., we document a negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the structural monetary rule and the evolution of the persistence and predictability of inflation relative to a trend component. Using an estimated sticky-price model, we show that a more aggressive policy stance towards inflation causes a decline in inflation predictability.