The effect of economic downturns on voter turnout in Africa

The academic literature provides two competing hypotheses about the effect of economic downturns on voter turnout: the 'mobilisation' hypothesis, according to which people go to the polls to express their discontent with the government's performance; and the 'withdrawal' hypothesis, according to which people stay at home on election day, either to attend to more immediate, pressing concerns or to punish the incumbent. In this paper, we test these hypotheses against novel data from 317 presidential elections in 40 African countries over the period from 1960 to 2016. We find that economic growth has a positive effect on voter turnout, consistent with the 'withdrawal' hypothesis. The paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, it provides the most comprehensive macro level analysis of voter turnout in Africa to-date. Second, it proves that African voters respond to changes in aggregate economic measures, thus contributing to the growing literature on economic voting in Africa. Finally, it demonstrates that African voters behave in a way that is consistent with the 'withdrawal' hypothesis.