Multiple earthquake event loss estimation methodology

A general analytical framework for evaluating the loss form multiple earthquake events is presented in this paper. Scenario events are modeled as Poisson or characteristic occurrences. The loss from individual buildings is modeled by a beta distribution conditional on the ground motion at the building site. Several formulations for the aggregated loss from a single scenario event is presented including an efficient series representations. The inter-arrival times for the Poisson sequence of events are assumed to be gamma distributed and the time to the next event for the characteristic events is also assumed to be gamma. A method presented for estimating the present worth of the average aggregated loss from all possible events in time t and independent of time. Similar formulations are developed for the variance of aggregated loss. A Fourier transform approach is used for estimating the probability distribution of aggregated loss.