On Forecast Method of Thirteenth Five-year ESER Planning Goals for Transport Airlines

Facing the increasingly serious pressure of domestic energy saving and emission reduction and international avionic climate change, the planning problem for an airline is studied, which is for its Thirteenth Five-year Planning. It can be sort out a prediction problem with uncertainty and non-stationary. After analyzing and constructing the index system, a method of the planning based on decision-making tree is put forward. The method adopts trend characteristics and contribution of independent factors as a correction to non-stationary process and inhibition of uncertainty. And it uses the actual historical operation data as its input and combines with pruning method, the results in combination with reference target are got.