Ensemble calibration of ECMWF's medium-range forecasts

被引：0
|
作者：
Ihasz, Istvan [1 ]
Ueveges, Zoltan [1 ]
Mile, Mate [1 ]
Nemeth, Csilla [2 ]
机构：
[1] Hungarian Meteorol Serv, H-1525 Budapest, Hungary
[2] Eotvos Lorand Univ, Dept Meteorol, H-1518 Budapest, Hungary
来源：
IDOJARAS | 2010年 / 114卷 / 04期
关键词：
ensemble calibration; medium-range weather forecasts; reforecast dataset; model climate; ensemble verification;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
A post-processing method is presented, that is aimed at enhancing the value of ensemble forecasts through ensemble calibration. This approach can reduce model errors. In March 2008, ECMWF introduced the VarEPS/Monthly system. Part of this service provides a weekly reforecast dataset for the last 18 years. This dataset has been successfully applied for ensemble calibration at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. The calibration was performed for surface meteorological variables such as 2m temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, 10m wind speed, and daily precipitation. An objective verification was performed on the basis of several deterministic and ensemble verification scores. The calibration method was introduced operationally in mid-2009.
引用
收藏
页码：275 / 286
页数：12
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