March madness? Strategic behavior in NCAA basketball tournament betting pools

被引：11
|
作者：
Metrick, A
机构：
[1] Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer Center - North Yard, Cambridge
来源：
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION | 1996年 / 30卷 / 02期
关键词：
gambling; natural experiments; biases;
D O I：
10.1016/S0167-2681(96)00855-4
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper uses data from the natural experiment of NCAA Basketball Tournament: ''betting pools'' in a descriptive study of strategic behavior. The observed behavior in these pools differs from equilibrium behavior in a robust manner; betters overback the heaviest favorites. The size of this bias falls slightly in larger pools, where the induced profit opportunities are higher than in smaller pools. This indicates that a small number of players are adjusting their behavior to reflect the changing strategic situation, while the aggregate behavior remains away from equilibrium.
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页码：159 / 172
页数：14
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