Sustainability and the Infinite Future: A Case Study of a False Modeling Assumption in Environmental Economics

This essay examines the issue of false assumptions in models via a case study of a prominent economic model of sustainable development, wherein the assumption of an infinite future plays a central role. Two proposals are found to be helpful for this case, one based on the concept of derivational robustness and the other on understanding. Both suggest that the assumption of an infinite future, while arguably legitimate in some applications of the model, is problematic with respect to what I call "Parfitian" welfare functions. This result is relevant to debates about discounting the future in economics and environmental ethics.