Research on Prediction of Transmission and Transformation Project Cost Index Based on ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models

被引：4

作者：

Niu, Dong-xiao ^{[1
]}

Hua, Fu-yu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 22ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT: INNOVATION AND PRACTICE IN INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT (VOL 2) | 2016年

关键词：

Cost index; ARIMA model; Exponential smoothing model; Elastic coefficient;

D O I：

10.2991/978-94-6239-177-2_79

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

Reasonable prediction of transmission and transformation line project cost index is of important significance to control the project cost and improve investment efficiency and strengthen the project cost management of power grid enterprises. Selecting the appropriate models and methods to predict the trends of cost index has been a research focused on the power transmission and transformation project cost analysis. In this paper, regarding power transmission and transformation line project cost index from 2008 to 2012 in Zhejiang Province as the research object, estimate the cost index reasonably, and construct cost index analysis and prediction model based on ARIMA and exponential smoothing models, and then, realize the process of modeling and obtain forecast results through SPSS software, which have some references in the application of prediction method.

引用

页码：771 / 779

页数：9

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