Stochastic model for the fluctuations of the atmospheric concentration of radionuclides and its application to uncertainty evaluation

被引：3

作者：

Ichige, Hiroyuki ^{[1
]}

Fukuchi, Shun ^{[1
]}

Hatano, Yuko ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Tsukuba, Grad Sch Syst & Informat Engn, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT | 2015年 / 103卷

关键词：

Chernobyl; Risk assessment; Stochastic process; Time-series analysis; Radionuclide; SPECTRAL-ANALYSIS; TIME-SERIES; CHERNOBYL; RESUSPENSION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.030

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We propose a new model of the atmospheric concentration of a radionuclide with the inclusion of fluctuations of the concentration. The model is a stochastic differential equation and we derive the analytic solution of the equation. The solution agrees very well with the Chernobyl Cs-137 data. The advantage of the model is that the uncertainty in radiation exposure risk, with regard to the concentration fluctuations, can be quantitatively estimated. We show the range of fluctuations of +/-sigma, +/- 2 sigma, +/- 3 sigma in the 10-year measurement of the atmospheric concentration in Chernobyl and confirmed the validity of the model. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：156 / 162

页数：7

共 50 条

[31] Short circuit current evaluation of measurement uncertainty and its application
Zhang, Jing
Xin, Tian
Zhou, Jun-Gang
Yan, Hong-Rui
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2015 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MECHANICS AND MECHATRONICS (ICMM 2015), 2016, : 625 - 630
[32] Uncertainty generation in deterministic flows: Theory and application with an atmospheric jet stream model
Liang, X. San
DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2011, 52 (1-2) : 51 - 79
[33] Evaluation model of sustainability and its application
Bi, Jun
Zhang, Shen
Tang, Yijian
Cai, Qiangguo
Zhongguo Huanjing Kexue/China Environmental Science, 1998, 18 (Suppl): : 30 - 36
[34] MODEL FOR MEASURING INDUSTRIAL CONCENTRATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO MEXICO
IDUNATE, PGA
TRIMESTRE ECONOMICO, 1990, 57 (226): : 317 - 341
[35] A generalized dose uncertainty model and its application to dose verification
Jin, H.
Palta, J.
Suh, T.
Kim, S.
MEDICAL PHYSICS, 2007, 34 (06) : 2331 - 2331
[36] A novel dose uncertainty model and its application for dose verification
Jin, HS
Chung, H
Liu, C
Palta, J
Suh, TS
Kim, SY
MEDICAL PHYSICS, 2005, 32 (06) : 1747 - 1756
[37] The CEV model and its application to financial markets with volatility uncertainty
Yuan, Weipeng
Lai, Shaoyong
JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS, 2018, 344 : 25 - 36
[38] AN EVALUATION THEORY FOR A MIXED MODEL STOCHASTIC-SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO NONSTATIONARY ROAD TRAFFIC NOISE
OHTA, M
NAKASAKO, N
ACUSTICA, 1990, 71 (02): : 121 - 126
[39] New statistical model for atmospheric optical scintillation and its application
Samimi, Hossein
IET OPTOELECTRONICS, 2013, 7 (02) : 31 - 37
[40] A modified dynamic framework for the atmospheric spectral model and its application
Wu, Tongwen
Yu, Rucong
Zhang, Fang
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2008, 65 (07) : 2235 - 2253

← 1 2 3 4 5 →