Modelling the impact of climate change on the flow of the Eerste River in South Africa

This research investigated the impact of climate change on the Eerste River, which is the primary source of water for the Stellenbosch Municipality and the agricultural sector in the surrounding areas of Stellenbosch Town, South Africa. Climate data projected by 11 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project -Phase 5 enforced by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, was statistically downscaled to reflect the "near" (2022-2057) and "far" (2058-2093) future periods, respectively. The ensemble mean of these GCMs outputs for the near and far future periods was compared to that of the present-day period which was accepted as the period between 1983 and 2018. This was done to determine the climate change signal, which was then transferred onto the observed precipitation and evaporation data of the present-day period. The climate change induced data, as well as land use and water demand analysed data, were then used as input to the Pitman Model, which is the conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model, for the simulation of the impact of climate change on the flow of the Eerste River. The results showed that climate change is expected to increase evaporation between 6% and 15% and, at the same time, causing rainfall to decrease between 2% and 8% in the future periods. This future climate is anticipated to cause a reduction in available water of between 8% and 18%, potentially triggering an increase in irrigation demand of between 12% and 29% in the future periods with a possible failure to meet the municipal water abstractions expected in the far-future period. Therefore, this research suggests increasing the capacity of existing farm dams and the promotion of water demand management practices to curb the potential impact of climate change on the available flow of the Eerste River.