Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 in India with treatment function through different phases of lockdown and unlock

被引:6
|
作者
Bandekar, Shraddha Ramdas [1 ]
Ghosh, Mini [1 ]
机构
[1] Vellore Inst Technol, Sch Adv Sci, Div Math, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
关键词
COVID-19; sensitivity analysis; stochastic differential equation; treatment; lockdown;
D O I
10.1080/07362994.2021.1962343
中图分类号
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号
070104 ;
摘要
India, unlike several other countries, has witnessed a greater challenge in overcoming the pandemic during the second wave crisis. The strategies on lockdown imposition during the first wave of the pandemic were well implemented due to which the year-long wave did not witness uncontrollable surges in the infections. In this study, we present a detailed study on the disease spread during the first and second wave of COVID-19, by performing numerical simulation in a phase-wise manner as per the lockdown and unlock phases implemented in India. The inclusion of a piecewise treatment function in the framed epidemiological model is a noteworthy aspect of the study since this function takes into consideration the availability of medical equipment, based upon the threshold number of infections. This function framed in this model first grows linearly reaching a peak, then it declines due to shortage of medical resources and finally gets saturated. Analysis of the impact of lockdown is presented for each phase of the pandemic in India. Though the data considered for the study is for a period that marked the beginning of the pandemic, major analysis and predictions are presented based on the second wave data in terms of sensitivity analysis and time series behavior. A comparison of deterministic and stochastic differential equations is presented with simulation results on certain parameter set to examine variation in treatment and recovery. The simulations are performed using MATLAB and R softwares. The work is validated with the real data and model fitting is done applying the Maximum Likelihood method. The study implies that, under accurate lockdown strategies and sufficient medical care, the peak in cases would be attained by 16 May 2021, after which a decline in the cases could be observed.
引用
收藏
页码:812 / 829
页数:18
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Year one of COVID-19 pandemic in India: Effect of lockdown and unlock on trends in keratoplasty at a tertiary eye centre
    Das, Anthony V.
    Chaurasia, Sunita
    Vaddavalli, Pravin K.
    Garg, Prashant
    INDIAN JOURNAL OF OPHTHALMOLOGY, 2021, 69 (12) : 3658 - 3662
  • [22] COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Through the Lens of Modeling
    Babu, Giridhara R.
    Ray, Debashree
    Bhaduri, Ritwik
    Halder, Aritra
    Kundu, Ritoban
    Menon, Gautam I.
    Mukherjee, Bhramar
    GLOBAL HEALTH-SCIENCE AND PRACTICE, 2021, 9 (02): : 220 - 228
  • [23] Endodontic Emergencies Encountered in a Tertiary Dental Hospital during the Periods of Prelockdown, Lockdown, and Sequential Unlock Phases of the First Wave of COVID-19 in Ahmedabad City, India
    Langaliya, Akshayraj
    Patel, Dolly
    Shah, Aarshvi
    Kumbhar, Aravind
    Shah, Jinali
    Shah, Sharan
    Bhatt, Ishan
    Dayala, Dhruvisha
    Gill, Rajmeet Singh
    Patel, Saloni
    Patel, Yatra
    Shah, Mandar
    Shah, Mihika
    Patel, Rushvi
    Agarwal, Aashvi
    Panchal, Drashti
    Vachhani, Vishwani
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DENTISTRY, 2022, 2022
  • [24] Lockdown-4: Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Scenario in India
    Pachori, Ravi
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, 2020, 11 (01)
  • [25] Diffusion modeling of COVID-19 under lockdown
    Serra, Nicola
    Di Carlo, Paola
    Rea, Teresa
    Sergi, Consolato M.
    PHYSICS OF FLUIDS, 2021, 33 (04)
  • [26] Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic data across different states and union territories of India and effectiveness of the lockdown
    Gupta, Sunil
    Gabrani, Goldie
    Phutela, Nishtha
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES, 2021, 17 (04) : 369 - 381
  • [27] Air Quality Before and After COVID-19 Lockdown Phases Around New Delhi, India
    Chaudhary, Sudesh
    Kumar, Sushil
    Antil, Rimpi
    Yadav, Sudesh
    JOURNAL OF HEALTH AND POLLUTION, 2021, 11 (30)
  • [28] Analysis of Imposition and Periodic Relaxation of Lockdown on the Spread of COVID-19 in India through Networked SEIR Model
    Mallick, Piklu
    Bhowmick, Sourav
    Panja, Surajit
    2021 SEVENTH INDIAN CONTROL CONFERENCE (ICC), 2021, : 63 - 68
  • [29] Year one of COVID-19 pandemic: Effect of lockdown and unlock phases on cataract surgery at a multi-tier ophthalmology network
    Das, Anthony, V
    Reddy, Jagadesh C.
    INDIAN JOURNAL OF OPHTHALMOLOGY, 2021, 69 (10) : 2818 - 2823
  • [30] Consumer Response to COVID-19 Induced Lockdown in India
    Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar
    Cariappa, A. G. Adeeth
    Adhav, Chaitanya A.
    Sendhil, R.
    Ramasundaram, P.
    INDIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT, 2023, 19 (02) : 303 - 311