Log-periodic time-to-failure analysis

We propose that heterogenous systems fail by exhibiting a critical behavior, characterized by the presence of log-periodic patterns. This prediction has been tested extensively during our continuing collaboration with the French Aerospace company Aerospatiale on gas pressure tanks embarked on the European Ariane rockets. Our theory was applied to about 50 pressure-tanks and the results indicate that a precision of a few percent in the determination of the stress at rupture is obtained using acoustic emission recorded 20 % below the stress at rupture. This non-destructive evalution technique is now used routinely in the qualifying procedure of the industrial fabrication process. We provide an introduction to the underlying theory, the physical mechanisms, as well as to generalization to other systems.