Food Source Prediction of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Outbreaks Using Demographic and Outbreak Characteristics, United States, 1998-2014

被引:28
|
作者
White, Alice [1 ]
Cronquist, Alicia [2 ]
Bedrick, Edward J. [3 ]
Scallan, Elaine [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Colorado Denver, Colorado Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Anschutz Med Campus,12477 E 19th Ave, Aurora, CO USA
[2] Colorado Dept Publ Hlth & Environm, Denver, CO USA
[3] Univ Arizona Hlth Sci, Ctr Biomed Informat & Stat, Tucson, AZ USA
关键词
E; Coli pathogens and food safety; foodborne disease; foodborne outbreaks; Escherichia coli O157:H7; ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE NETWORK; FOODBORNE DISEASE OUTBREAKS; PUBLIC-HEALTH; HIGH-RISK; SEASONALITY; CONSUMPTION; INFECTIONS; PROFILES; ILLNESS; ADULTS;
D O I
10.1089/fpd.2016.2140
中图分类号
TS2 [食品工业];
学科分类号
0832 ;
摘要
Background: Foodborne illness is a continuing public health problem in the United States. Although outbreak-associated illnesses represent a fraction of all foodborne illnesses, foodborne outbreak investigations provide critical information on the pathogens, foods, and food-pathogen pairs causing illness. Therefore, identification of a food source in an outbreak investigation is key to impacting food safety. Objective: The objective of this study was to systematically identify outbreak-associated case demographic and outbreak characteristics that are predictive of food sources using Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) outbreaks reported to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 1998 to 2014 with a single ingredient identified. Materials and Methods: Differences between STEC food sources by all candidate predictors were assessed univariately. Multinomial logistic regression was used to build a prediction model, which was internally validated using a split-sample approach. Results: There were 206 single-ingredient STEC outbreaks reported to CDC, including 125 (61%) beef outbreaks, 30 (14%) dairy outbreaks, and 51 (25%) vegetable outbreaks. The model differentiated food sources, with an overall sensitivity of 80% in the derivation set and 61% in the validation set. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility for a tool for public health professionals to rule out food sources during hypothesis generation in foodborne outbreak investigation and to improve efficiency while complementing existing methods.
引用
收藏
页码:527 / 534
页数:8
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