Reflections on the distribution of deaths in the first year of life

This article reexamines the thesis first put forward by Jean Bourgeois-Pichat according to which the distribution of deaths in the first year of life is governed by a universal law. An examination of data From a number of countries for both past and present populations, shows no such single and universal distribution, though it does reveal the existence of a number of distinct patterns which are subject to change over time. The disparity between the observed data and those predicted by 'Bourgeois-Pichat's law' cannot be taken as a systematic guide to the quality of the data, although it may provide a clue to the problems affecting these data. Lastly, an examination of the distribution of infant deaths remains an effective method for explaining the changes and variations occurring in the infant mortality rates of past and present populations.