Secessionist rebellion in the former Soviet Union

The level of ethnic violence increased in Eurasia after the Soviet collapse. Two theories are tested to account for this increase. Horowitz's theory emphasizes psychological mechanisms affecting self-esteem. An alternative theory by Fearon and Van Houten, based on Brubaker's "triadic configuration," and relying on a commitment logic, emphasizes the level of an external homeland's support for a Tninority population in a nationalizing state. Tests of these theories are performed on new data collected by the author from six post-Soviet republics (Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, and Azerbaijan), only two of which experienced secessionist rebellion. The data do not support the predictions that would follow from Horowitz's theory. The commitment theory, however, is consistent with the data and the historical record.