Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting

This paper proposes a contemporaneous smooth transition threshold autoregressive model (C-STAR) as a modification of the smooth transition threshold autoregressive model surveyed in Terasvirta [1998. Modelling economic relationships with smooth transition regressions. In: Ullah, A., Giles, D.E.A. (Eds.), Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics. Marcel Dekker, New York, pp. 507-552.], in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probability that a latent regime-specific variable will exceed a threshold value. We argue that the contemporaneous model is well suited to rational expectations applications (and pricing exercises), in that it does not require the initial regimes to be predetermined. We investigate the properties of the model and evaluate its finite-sample maximum likelihood performance. We also propose a method to determine the number of regimes based on a modified Hansen [1992. The likelihood ratio test under nonstandard conditions: testing the Markov switching model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics 7, S61-S82.] procedure. Furthermore, we construct multiple-step ahead forecasts and evaluate the forecasting performance ofthe model. Finally, an empirical application of the short term interest rate yield is presented and discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.