Secondary Risk Theory: Validation of a Novel Model of Protection Motivation

Protection motivation theory states individuals conduct threat and coping appraisals when deciding how to respond to perceived risks. However, that model does not adequately explain today's risk culture, where engaging in recommended behaviors may create a separate set of real or perceived secondary risks. We argue for and then demonstrate the need for a new model accounting for a secondary threat appraisal, which we call secondary risk theory. In an online experiment, 1,246 participants indicated their intention to take a vaccine after reading about the likelihood and severity of side effects. We manipulated likelihood and severity in a 2 x 2 between-subjects design and examined how well secondary risk theory predicts vaccination intention compared to protection motivation theory. Protection motivation theory performed better when the likelihood and severity of side effects were both low (R-2= 0.30) versus high (R-2= 0.15). In contrast, secondary risk theory performed similarly when the likelihood and severity of side effects were both low (R-2= 0.42) or high (R-2= 0.45). But the latter figure is a large improvement over protection motivation theory, suggesting the usefulness of secondary risk theory when individuals perceive a high secondary threat.