On the predictability of narrative fiscal adjustments

被引：7
|
作者：
Hernandez de Cos, Pablo [1 ]
Moral-Benito, Enrique [1 ]
机构：
[1] Banco Espana, Calle Alcala 48, Madrid 28014, Spain
来源：
ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2016年 / 143卷
关键词：
Fiscal adjustment; Fiscal multiplier; Narrative approach; TAX CHANGES; SHOCKS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.econlet.2016.03.024
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper shows that spending-based adjustments identified by DeVries et al. (2011) can be predicted on the basis of past output growth and other macroeconomic variables. Moreover, their contractionary effects vanish once we account for this source of endogeneity while tax-based consolidations remain contractionary. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码：69 / 72
页数：4
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