Assessing the impact of management and organizational factors on the risk of tanker grounding

Management and organizational factors have contributed, directly or indirectly, to many tanker accidents. These factors are frequently not considered in human reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment or accident investigations. In order to identify effective and efficient measures to prevent accidents, a systematic approach including all important root causes and variables must be utilized. The objective of this paper is to present a probabilistic risk model for tanker grounding which includes management and organizational factors and their relationship to human error. Work on this model continues the development of an earlier model which applied risk assessment methodologies from the nuclear power industry to quantify the impact of human error on the probability of tanker grounding. This approach is extended to consider the effect of management and organizational factors on human performance shaping factors, and ultimately on human error. This effect is examined and quantified using expert opinion and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Management and organizational factors found to have the greatest impact on the probability of grounding are identified and compared to factors emphasized by the International Safety Management (ISM) Code.