On the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon: co-integration and error-correction models

This paper investigates the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon. The study is performed in two periods. The first period extends from 1992 to 1996 when power rationing was implemented. The second period extends from 1997 to 1999 when rationing was drastically reduced. Also, each period is divided into a winter and a summer season. In the first period, climate factors such as temperature, relative humidity and clearness index are found not to influence the electrical energy consumption due to widespread rationing and the regression coefficient shows inconsistencies and are not in the anticipated direction. In the second period, temperature has a significant effect on electrical energy consumption in the summer season, while this effect is not apparent in the winter. Also, the relative humidity and clearness index coefficients are found to be negative for the winter season and positive for the summer season. Furthermore, two co-integration tests show that the variables are co-integrated indicating the existence of long run relationships among them. The short run relationships are also estimated through error correction models. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.