The Clinical Course of Kidney Transplant Recipients After 20 Years of Graft Function

There is a growing population of kidney transplant recipients who have survived 20 years with a functioning graft. This study identified the factors associated with prolonged survival and described the clinical course of recipients after two decades of transplant function. All recipients transplanted in Northern Ireland between 1968 and 1993 were included (n=706) and data were collected prospectively. At 20 years, 25% had a functioning transplant; in multivariate analysis younger recipient age and living donation were associated with 20-year survival. The median recipient survival beyond two decades was 13.3 years; cancer was the commonest cause of death. De novo malignancy developed in 37% of recipients and cardiovascular disease in 27% after 20 years of graft function. The median graft survival after 20 years was 9.3 years; 69% of graft loss was due to death with a functioning transplant. Advances in kidney transplantation have improved the long-term survival of both graft and recipient. After two decades the majority of patients die with a functioning graft. The focus of management in long-term survivors may need to be on the prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease to allow further improvements in graft and recipient survival.