Financial variables and real activity in Canada

In this paper we utilize Canadian and U.S. data to investigate the relationship between financial market variables (Canadian and U.S.) and Canadian output growth, using a non-parametric technique. The financial variables examined are those that are often associated with future output growth, namely, stock prices, interest rates, interest rate spreads and monetary aggregates. Our results show that as the number of auto-covariances that are assigned a non-zero weight increases, the feedback from selected Canadian or U.S. financial variables to future Canadian output growth increases. In particular, we find that stock prices as well as yield spreads and monetary aggregates are useful predictors of output growth. This is in line with earlier parametric studies in the literature that find these variables to be good predictors of economic activity.