Predicting girls' conduct disorder in adolescence from childhood trajectories of disruptive behaviors

Objective: To examine girls' developmental trajectories of disruptive behaviors during the elementary school years and to predict conduct disorder symptoms and diagnosis in adolescence with trajectories of these behaviors. Method: The sample was 820 girls from the province of Quebec followed over 10 years (1986-1996). A semiparametric mixture model was used to describe girls' developmental trajectories of teacher-rated disruptive behaviors between the ages of 6 and 12 years. The trajectories were used to predict conduct disorder symptoms and diagnosis when the girls were on average 15.7 years. Results: Four groups of girls following trajectories with distinct levels of disruptive behaviors were identified: a low, medium, medium-high, and high trajectory. Prediction with the trajectories indicated that girls on the medium, medium-high, and high trajectories reported a significantly higher number of conduct disorder symptoms in adolescence. However. only the girls on the medium-high and high trajectories were at significantly higher risk to meet DSM-III-R criteria for conduct disorder, compared with girls in the low group (odds ratio: 4.46). More than two thirds of the girls with conduct disorder were in the medium or higher-level trajectories. Conclusion: The results suggest that there is an early-onset type of conduct disorder in girls.