Problem-Oriented Technology for Predictive Analytics of Adaptive Risk Management

The paper analyzes the prospects of applying the problem-oriented technology of adaptive risk management in the form of an expert risk management system. Predictive Analytics of the expert system is performed as the basis to manage risks in the system of strategic planning with the use of logic-linguistic models and a discrete situation network. Both traditional economic calculations of investment attractiveness were made and analysis of the linkages of problematic situations, risks and threats was performed. The project is aimed at meeting the needs of the state, sectoral and regional government system in individual situation centers and using the methodological, technological and technical capabilities of solution providers from situation centers. Predictive analysis was carried out taking into account the ability of systematic development of the socioeconomic system and modern advancement of information and communication technology, including application of cognitive approaches, problem-oriented technology of adaptive management, logic-linguistic modeling of problematic situations, and abilities of artificial intelligence. Based on the conducted business analysis, it is proposed the scope of the expert risk management system project is proposed, as well as its integration in the system of distributed situation centers of the Russian Federation and in the federal service of risk management as a sectoral level of individual situation centers.