Modeling urban land use changes in Lanzhou, China with GIS and DUEM

This paper presented an analysis of land use changes of 1995-2005 in Lanzhou, China, and predictions into 2020 with GIS and DUEM model. Urban land use changes of 1995-2005 were analyzed with GIS and three indexes, including Land Use Dynamic Index (LUDI), Land Use Development (LUD) and Land Use Consumption (LUC). DUEM was an extended cellular automata (CA) model developed firstly by Xie in 1994, and refined in 1999. Two scenarios were designed to explore future urban land use changes in Lanzhou: the first was considered as the continuation of the historical trend with the parameters derived from the calibration of DUEM; the second was revised according to urban planning map of 2001-2010 and the fifth five-year plan based on the first. Future urban land use changes were both centralized at the edge of the city under the two different scenarios, mainly in Yantan of Chengguan Distric, Matan and Cuijiadatan of Qilihe District, Anning Country, Shajingyi Country, Cuijizhuan and Yingmentan of Anning District. Future urban land use change under the second scenario was faster than the first, and may be closer to the real future trend. This paper also tested the suitability of DUEM in China.