Trends and regional variations in the administrative prevalence of attention -deficit/hyperactivity disorder among children and adolescents in Germany

There is a controversy regarding temporal trends in prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Using nationwide claims data containing data for approximately six million statutory health insured children we aimed to examine a) trends of ADHD administrative prevalence during 2009-2016; b) regional variations in prevalence, and c) factors associated with an increased chance of ADHD diagnosis. The ICD-10 code 'F90-hyperkinetic disorder' was used to define an ADHD case. Global and Local Moran's I tests were used to examine the spatial autocorrelation and k-means-cluster analysis to examine the course of ADHD prevalence in administrative districts over years. Two-level logistic regression was applied to examine individual- and district-level factors associated with ADHD diagnosis. The administrative prevalence of ADHD was 4.33% (95%Cl: 4.31-4.34%). We observed pronounced small-area differences on the district level with prevalences ranging between 1.6% and 9.7%. There was evidence of strong spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I: 0.46, p < 0.0001). The k-means-method identified six clusters of different size; all with a stagnating trend in the prevalence over the observation period of eight years. On the district level, a lower proportion of foreign citizens, and a higher density of paediatric psychiatrists and paediatricians were positively associated with ADHD with a more pronounced effect in urban districts.