Non-linear prediction of relativistic electron flux in the outer belt

The relativistic electron environment of spacecraft in geostationary orbit is governed by processes on the Sun and by the solar wind/magnetosphere interaction. Because of the association of these particles with spacecraft anomalies, there are considerable practical benefits to be gained by predicting and forecasting this environment. This paper describes the use of non-linear modelling in the prediction of relativistic electron flux in the outer radiation belt, based on solar wind characteristics, magnetic activity indices and the sunspot number. Models used are based on self-adaptive time-series methods using Radial Basis Functions (RBFs). Techniques are employed to handle non-contiguous data, which is a common problem for geophysical data sets. Non-stationarity in the data sets is treated by randomising the division of input vectors into training and test sets. The success of these models is quantitatively assessed and compared to that obtained using 'persistence'. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR. All rights reserved.